2014 Loksabha Election Results - Congress Splits and Disintegration

2014 Lok Sabha Election Predictions and Survey Results State Wise :-

2014 Loksabha Election will mark the beginning of disintegration of Congress at national level. It may split into several regional outfits.

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2014 Loksabha Election Surveys Predictions - Can BJP led NDA get Absolute Majority?

NDTV Election Survey Results and Hansa Public Relations links with APCO Worldwide, Narendra Modi's Public Relation Agency.

(This section was added on 8th May, 2014)

Surveys after surveys have been predicting that BJP may emerge as the single largest party after 2014 Loksabha election. And interestingly, all surveys indicate that, BJP may perform unexpectedly well in the states Uttar Pradesh, Bihar and Maharashtra.

Of course, I have noted Seema's article appeared in www.thecitizen.in. The article is interesting and important too................

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I have a feeling that BJP may get slightly lower number of seats in Uttar pradesh and Bihar, than what is predicted. In these states Anti Modi votes may get consolidated behind other opponents. (the Surveys can only predict the current mood. It can not accurately predict the results if there is transferring of votes to defeat leading candidates in individual constituencies.

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People dont vote in favour of a party. But they vote against a party. When people look other parties, they know there are good parties at local level. But they dont want to vote to a regional party which may not be able to influence govt at center. In short, people want to sense that his/her vote is actually making some influence somewhere. BJP emerged as the main opposition of Congress only because of this tactical transferring of votes to the main opponent party at National level. But that very process has created other frictions at regional level. Now there are small groups– caste groups and religious groups— who NOW WANTS TO DEFEAT the already emerged leader party. The second level of re-alignment takes place as a response to the first level of re-alignment.

This last moment re-alignment wont happen till the last few days. this can not be judged by election surveys. Let us wait and see.

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(Please read the full article at the bottom of this page ....)

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2014 Loksabha Election Survey - Aam Aadmi Party -AAP, 25% back Arvind Kejriwal as Prime Minister- Times of India.

(This section was added on 12th January, 2014)

44% of voters in India's top metropolises say they will vote AAP for Lok Sabha: Times of India opinion poll.

This trend was pointed out by http://moronsview.blogspot.in , well before Delhi Assembly Elections. Please see below to read old articles:

In big metros of India 25% of people consider Arvind Kejriwal as better Prime Minister candidate and Rahul gandhi with 14% support, is in the third position. If we can believe the findings of Time of India-IPSOS, 58% voters believe Modi as better prime minister candidate. However this finding is based on the survey among voters from major Metros. This survey doesnt represent the voters from small towns and rural India.
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(Please read the full article at the bottom of this page ....)

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Will Rahul Gandhi become Prime Minister of India after 2014 Loksabha Elections? What is Congress' game plan?

Now that the News is breaking in, indicating that Prime Minister Manmohan Singh is going to resign and Rahul Gandhi will swear in as the next Prime Minister of India before the Loksabha Election. (Later PMO denied any such move.)

This essay is first published on 31st Dec 2013, 11.40.pm)

 

As it is discussed here  earlier -  It is absolutely impossible for ................
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(Please read at the bottom of this blog to read the complete article.)

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What if Congress forms Alliance with BSP of Mayawati and RJD of Lalu?

(This section is added on 26th December 2014)

There are 40 Loksabha seats in Bihar and 80 Loksabha seats from Uttar Pradesh.

The Caste Composition in Uttar Pradesh:
OBC - 45, Yadavs 9, Kurmi - 4 to 9, Lodh - 3 to 6.
Muslims -18.5.
Dalit population ---------------
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(Please read the remaining part of this blog at the bottom of this page.)

Who has better chance to become Indian Prime Minister in 2014? (This essay is first published on 21st Dec 2013) If a govt is formed after 2014 Loksabha election with the support of BJP, then. One of these individuals would become Prime Minister a) Narendra Modi, b) Jayalalitha, c) ......d) ..... or e) ...... If a govt is formed after 2014 Loksabha election with support from congress, then, One of these leaders would  become Prime Minister a) Jayalalitha, b) ...., c) ...... d) .....,  e) ..... f) ...., g) ......

Please Visit My Other Articles Below: ----------------- Ayodhya Judgment - Follies, Solutions. Why IT Outsourcing is Not Sustainable and Wrong Economy Model. M.N. Vijayan Writings in English. Why Less Jobs in USA and West? Loksabha Election - 2014 - Congress and BJP Start Fading Away. *******

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Hence it is almost certain that next Prime Minister of India will be one of the following .......

a) ........ b) .... c) ...... d) ..... e) ..... f) .... g).....h).......

(Please read the complete essay at the bottom of this page.)

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Will Aam Aadmi Party (Arvind Kejriwal Party) Divide BJP Votes in 2014 Loksabha Election?

(This section is added on 9th December 2013, a day after Delhi state election results were announced.)

"If Arvind Kejriwal wins 20 – 25 seats from Delhi, wouldn’t that embolden AAP to field more candidates during 2014 loksabha elections or not? And whose urban votes Kejriwal is going to divide? Again, who is going to be at loss?"

This is what I posted on 31st October 2013.  Interestingly  yesterday (when the results for the Delhi/ Chattisgarh, Rajastan and Madhyapradesh were out) BJP leaders were insisting that AAP..............
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Kindly see a relatively more recent write up "Can Jayalalitha Become the Prime Minister of India?" at the bottom of this page.
 
 Can Jayalalitha Become the Prime Minister of India?

(On 31st October, 2013, this section is added.)

Jayalalitha has a better chance to become the Prime Minister of India.

I dont say, Jayalalitha will be  ..... "

(Please read the complete write-up at the bottom of this page. )

Kindly see latest write up "Can Rahul Revive Congress?" in the wake of Uttar Pradesh Election Debacle, at the bottom of this page.

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2014 Lok Sabha Election Predictions and Survey Results State Wise :-

2014 Loksabha Election will mark the beginning of disintegration of Congress at national level. It may split into several regional outfits.

First published on 31st May 2011. Edited on 2nd June. Notes about Yogendra Yadav Survey is appended on 12th August 2011. Below given section is preserved in its original form without changing a single word of it. It was rightly pointed out 3 years back, what most Election Surveys predict today. Tens of internet forums, facebook pages, blogs etc have re-published part of this original article, most of them published by myself. Hundreds of readers have read this below given section 2 years back itself. Some of them even joined it as followers, or commented both at this page or at other forums where excerpts of this article were re-posted.

2014 Loksabha Election will mark the beginning of disintegration of Congress at national level. It may split into several regional outfits.

By 1989, it became evident that Congress can not come to power by its own strength, though, its leaders realized it only very late. With Nuclear wrangle, Congress has permanently lost the chance of getting a reliable outside support. (Though it is now trying desperately to bring in a leadership change within the Left, using its friendly Media manipulations, they are going to learn how they have screwed up everything sooner rather than later.). In the last general election, they won only because of an unexpected short-lived surge in popularity Rahul managed to initiate in U.P, which elects India's largest electoral college, and also due to the division of opposition votes in major states like Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh and Maharastra. Though TDP's mass base eroded because of its inept decisions of alienating poorer sections and minority and thus creating political vacuum to be seized by others and also because its non-Reddy vote base is eroded due to Telegana movement and by the emergence of Chiranjeevi's group, it still commands roughly 25% of the vote bank in Andhra. The predicament of Congress in Andhra is that Jagan has obliterated its Reddy support base and it can not woo Jagan, pro-Telegana groups and Chiranjeevi at the same time. If it fails to woo Jagan, BJP will sure get a new ally which can add a maximum of another 15 seats to NDA tally. Interestingly in a three or four cornered contest, Congress will face an unprecedented electoral debacle in Andhra with our without Praja Rajyam, which has already shrunk down from a party to a coterie.

The only hope Congress can nourish now is that, it may be able to win back Jayalalita, but in that case, it may still give Vijaya Kant's 10% votes to be manipulated by Left. (It is difficult for Congress-DMK alliance to get Vijayakant's support without losing some of the existing allies, as there are too many parties already in DMK alliance and some of these leaders are known for their whimsical ways.) And again in a three cornered contest (with all eventuality of Karunanidhi passing away and one of the DMK faction winning over some sympathy), congress can not expect any significant gain.

To add to this, Congress may have to face the massive anti-incumbency wave due to uninterrupted inflation nation wide, particularly in the states ruled by it. It is in this background that, desperate voices are heard urging Priayanka to take up the challenge of doing the impossible, with a focus on Hindi heartland, where, hitherto her brother's mavericks proved to be unsuccessful. It is clear, if Congress can not win these crucial states in the next Parliament election, it will be faced with a situation where, Congress will still remain but as strong regional outfits led by powerful regional Satraps. Rangaswamy has already replaced Congress in Pondichery. Sharad Pawar still enjoys support in Maharashtra. And many others will follow Mamata and Sharad Pawar, in the coming years. Mark these words-- Jagan will be discussed more in the coming days than Mamata or Manmohan , simply because he represent a symptom. First you will have running nose and a cough. Then one morning you notice one tiny bubble or raised red spot on face. But, that is how the chickenpox rashes spread all over the body. In Karnataka, right now it is depended on Kuruba Vote base and if Sidharamaiah ally with JDS, it will be practially wiped out from Karnataka. The problem with Siddharamaiah is that, he can not build base among other communities, and Kurubas can never win a seat, but can only play spoiler.

Please Visit My Other Articles Below: -------- Ayodhya Judgment - Follies, Solutions. Why IT Outsourcing is Not Sustainable and Wrong Economy Model. M.N. Vijayan Writings in English. Why Less Jobs in USA and West? Loksabha Election - 2014 - Congress and BJP Start Fading Away. -------

This would mean, first time in the history of India, Congress will become a third group in all the three major South Indian states, the unenviable position it enjoys in Uttar Pradesh, Bihar and West Bengal already- not to speak about TN, J&K, for which the present day Congress policies are not responsible. What the political pundits failed to observe during the last one decade is the fact that Congress' mass base is steadily eroding in all states despite it managing to win crucial elections mainly because of the opposition is divided, by the strengths of its allies or simply because of anti-incumbency. The Congress can certainly bounce back to power ONLY IF IT CONTINUE TO ALLY WITH other regional groups, but can never reverse its erosion of mass base, simply because any attempt to win back the base will only alienate the electoral ally. And a time has come, the inability to arrest the downturn of mass-base, has severely limited its ability to cobble up coalitions at state levels.

Can the Congress really re-build its base. Well, according to me, it lost that last chance when it back-stabbed Left. If left had continued its support, probably Congress would have moved to center and played the role of Welfare-capitalist, pro-poor political party -in other words, "right wing party with a human face". But, with its electoral debacle in West Bengal, CPIM may have to move further left, and that will force the Congress to move further Right. This is because unlike in UP, congress cannot take up the land-issue in any state where it has some cadre base (including West Bengal). In all states Congress has some base now, its core support base is that of pro-liberalisation urban middle-class, the constituency which spearhead the liberalization campaign. That means, Congress can not radically change itself to win over the lost base. The only groups which support Congress now, are those with surplus land, (and volatile urban-middle-class, identity based groups) which can actually gain with the escalation of the price of land if massive industrial projects are implemented, but all other groups have already abandoned Congress long back. Certain other groups and castes have marginal or no land and they can hardly get benefited with the real-estate boom. These groups are not only caste groups like Adivasis, Dalits, Muslims, OBCs but also small and medium scale shop owners based in urban areas, fisher-folks, those who are dependent on traditional industries, and slum-dwellers and other urban poor.

Major Non- Congress, Non- BJP parties in India-
Nitish Kumar- Sharad Yadav led JD-U. - May be willing to ally with Congress. But why should Nitish ally with a defeated party, which doesnt have any presence in Bihar? Nitish Kumar can support Third Front, BJP or Congress. In this context, dumping BJP wont be a big problem for Nitish, because that will only help to shift the whole Muslim base to his party. 16% of Bihar population is Muslims. This is a good reason for Nitish to gamble and dump BJP. With a good image among middle class, he need not worry about losing large percentage of upper-caste Hindu votes, but even a further shift of 5% Muslim Votes in his favour will help him to form a single party Govt. Remember upper caste is only 17% in Bihar. With the clean pro-development image, Nitish can not lose even half of the upper-caste votes. This means dumping the BJP just before his term ends (Lok Sabha elections will be in 2014 and Next Bihar election is in 2015) will be a gamble Nitish can dexterously play. One reason why he can go with Congress is that, it can win back section of upper-caste votes with the help of Congress. But one reason why he can not go with Congress is that it can bring a negative image, as the track-record of UPA-II is unenviable one. By dumping BJP, Nitish is sure to become a hero in the eyes of Minorities and he can prevent RJD or Congress winning back these votes.

Jayalalita led AIADMK- Willing to ally with Congress. If the congress ally with AIADMK, it will lose the backing of DMK. DMK is still the largest party in Tamil Nadu. Jayalaita alone failed to get even deposits in bye-elections. If she can not get 10% of Vijayakant party and Left support and in the absence of strong anti-DMK wave, she may struggle to get majority in the future. Any way the combined Congress Allies' tally from Tamil Nadu will only go down in the 2014 election. With a possible split in DMK, after the demise of Karunanidhi, things are going to become more complicated. Jayalalita can support BJP, Congress or Third Front. But supporting BJP at this point will be suicidal for her. However, she will ultimately support any ruling front in the center- Third Front, BJP or Congress led groups.

TDP- Andhra Pradesh - TDP alone is not expected to make huge gains in Andhra. But it has not much to lose now. It may not do well in Reddy base. And it will be routed in Telegana region. But it can still emerge as the sinlge largest party from Andhra, if all other factors become favourable. TDP can support only Third Front.

Jagan Party- break away group of Congress- Fomer CM Raja sekhara Reddy's son leads this- Jagan may ensure that Congress is wiped out from Andhra Pradesh. Congress may still win some seats from Telegana. But if it can not woo Jagan Back, even with the help of Praja Rajyam, Congress cant hope anything better. But if Jagan Comes back to Congress, that will be the beginning of a new trend. Jagan can not support third front. He may become an ally of BJP
 
Shiv Sena- Traditional ally of BJP. It is expected to perform better in the 2014 election. The MNS factors may not work next time in favour of Congress. Nevertheless, Third Front enjoys the support of a spectrum of social groups. The problem with third front in Maharashtra is that, it doesnt have winnability. However, in a post-election scenario, Sharad Pawar may shift loyalty.
Bahujan Samaj Party of Mayavati - Mayavati will not be able to get as many seats as she won last time. Samajwadi Party will only increase its tally. Mayavathi can not support Congress and Samajwadi party can not support BJP. And both these parties can not co-exist in the same coalition. It is possible that one of these parties may go with Third Front and other may back either Congress or BJP. Her first priority will be to become Prime Minister. During the crucial period, she will be adamant not to support BJP or Congress. And what ever decision she takes to support any other Govt led by anyone other than herself will be taken after the formation of that Govt. This is an interesting scenario. Think of it. If both Congress and BJP led coalitions are not getting simple majority in 2014 elections and  if BJP or congress led Govt are going to be formed by roping in other groups, then they may very unlikely to get Mayavati's support, simply because it is at this stage, she can hope to become the next Prime Minister. She will desperately try not to allow others to form the Govt during this phase. But if there is going to be a long dead-lock, then she will be forced to support some group (Noone can expect her to form a Govt without other parties' support.)

Samajwadi Party of Mulayam Singh Yadav - He can support either Congress or Third Front. But he may be more keen to be with Third Front 

RJD of Lalu Pradad Yadav - Lalu never enjoyed the support of Non-Yadav and Non- Muslim vote base. The problem with Lalu is that, he doesnt have alliance partners which can ensure support from other castes, communities and classes. However, right now he is the only opposition in Bihar and Congress cannot occupy this space in the near future, perhaps never. If Nitish goes with Congress in the post poll phase, Lalu can do well in multi-cornered elections. However, as of now, Nitish' popularity is very high in Bihar and RJD is not expected to win large number of seats. Lalu is very likely to go for an pre-poll alliance with Congress, but in the post poll scenario, he may support Congress or Third Front. He can not support BJP. The clear loser in Bihar is going to be BJP. With alliance with RJD, Congress may win more seats next time. Another 3 years may give enough time for RJD to rebuild his party. This is possible because of high level of inflation. With Petroleum companies increasing the price on monthly basis, all state govt will face the wrath of public and this will have an impact.
 
BJD of Naveen Patnaik. He may go with Third Front. He can not go with Congress and will not go with BJP in the near future. The good thing about Naveen is that, he kicked out BJP and both BJP and Congress are fighting each other for the space of opposition. That is good news for BJD, because a divided opposition can help him to win elections. However, his autocratic ways can bring problems to him in the long run. 3 years is a long time. Orissa is a backward state. One can only hope BJD will be able to maintain its popularity.
 
DMK - Karunanidhi may or may not be able to devise winning strategies for DMK. If he is still there, a united DMK will fight back and can win significant number of seats from Tamil Nadu. As Vijayakant and Jayalalita are known for their whimsical ways, DMK can emerge as the single largest party if DMDK and AIADMK fail to contest together. DMK can support Congress or if there is going to be a hung parliament, he may even support a third front. 3 Years is a long period in politics and people may easily forget the Scams. More interestingly, certain Business interests may work to bring DMK and Samajwadi Party together, in case of a hung parliament.
 
AGP - At present AGP is still the largest opposition group in Assam. It may be inclining to support BJP. But with the emergence of AIUDF, AGP can not afford to alienate itself from minorities more. AGP's participation in the Central Govt will only boost its chance of expanding its influence bases. As of now, AGP is closer to BJP, but the failure of grand alliance has an impact. In case of hung parliament, AGP can go with Third Front.
 
Trinamul Congress of Mamata - Mark these words - Mamata can not win the majority of seats from Bengal in the 2014 elections. Left Front will bounce back and will get majority of Seats. CPM lost its influence mainly because of Budhadeb's anti-left policies. Even according to surveys, Mamata's popular support fades very easily. Most of its leaders are not guided by any principle and personality issues and corruption may easily come to fore sooner. And CPIM has no difficulty now to take up people's issues. The internal contradiction between Mamata and Leftist radical group will create problems in rural areas, when the common enemy is removed from power. Remember the real fight against Neo-liberal policies of Budhadeb was spearheaded by Maoists and groups backed by them and Mamata only became a face of this resistance. Now that she in power and need to appease the urban voters, which is her traditional core-group, Left will only gain politically.
 
JD(S). JD-s led by Deve Gowda will improve its tally in the coming election. However, his son Kumara Swamy now controls the party and he is not known for his intelligence. But he is a mass leader who enjoys support from all over Karnataka. Though, Deve Gowda also is a mass leader, he doesnt have control over the Local leaders and his influence is limited in the Vokkaliga heartland. The Congress can even engineer a split in Janata Dal. But as of now, the Congress is faction ridden and no way it can win Karnataka election without the help of Janata Dal. BJP is still able to win large vote share and seats with the support some of the lingayat maths and with money power. If Siddaramaiah cross over to Janata Dal side, that will be the end of Congress in Karnataka. It has already lost Vokkaliga vote base. It is desperately trying to win back Lingayat community supporters. As of now, Congress is the only party in Karnataka which can win votes from all castes and all regions. And with tactical support from Janata Dal, it can do well in 2014 elections. But as long as Deve Gowda is alive, JD may support third front at national level. Unless and until, it allows JD to head Karnataka Govt, it is difficult to get support at center. The moment Congress allow JD to head Karnataka Coalition Govt, it will be finished. The biggest problem with JD is that, its support base is limited to certain regions and it doesnt have good mass leaders from Lingayat Community.
 
In short, the Congress led coalition may not be able to win the next election. Though BJP led coalition may increase its tally, it will find it extremely difficult to find partners next time. The major states where it needs crucial help from non- Congress parties are Tamil Nadu, West Bengal, Andhra Pradesh, Bihar, Uttar Pradesh, Assam, Maharashtra and Orissa. Among this, Andhra and Tamil Nadu, it enjoyed support earlier, but the parties which supported BJP in the past suffered major set backs and they lost support of minority votes. Because of  TDP's past decision to support BJP, practically it is now facing political extinction. In this context, parties like Mamata, Jayalalita, TDP, BSP etc may be reluctant to support BJP govt next time. Out of this, Jayalalita and BSP may still support BJP front and it can expect to get Jagan as a new partner.
 
At present BJP front has approximately 25% of vote share and if Nitish Kumar decide to part with BJP, then practically BJp may become politically irrelevant in the national level. What do all these mean?

We are almost sure that, Congress led front may not come to power in the 2014 election and the chances of BJP cobbling up the partners is very bleak. This is an interesting scenario. A large number of Non-Congress and Non- BJP parties may be able to come together to form the next Govt at national level. During the last general election the "Parking Slot" Third Front got a little more than 20% votes. Not far behind from two other fronts.

 In the 2009 general election, Congress won 206 seats. If we can assume that its tally will come down in UP by 10 seats, in Andhra by 10 seats, in Maharashtra by 3 seats, in Kerala by 7 seats, West Bengal by 2 seats, and if it perform marginally better in Bihar and Karnataka with the help of alliance partners, then it may win 180 odd seats. The present alliance partners tally may not go up except in case of NCP. But there is a chance of RJD imporving its position marginally. This means under no circumstances, Congress led alliance can form the Govt at center. However, this can change only if both Nitish Kumar and Jayalalita supporting Congress alliance. But even with their support, it will be difficult for Congress to get the numbers. If that has to happen Congress has to perform exceptionally well in MP and Rajastan and Orissa. It is highly impossible that Congress can do well both in Rajastan and Madhya Pradesh. This means, no way it can form govt at center and will be forced to extend support to any other Non-BJP govt to halt further erosion of its base.
 
BJP had won 116 seats and its alliance partners 44 seats in the last elections. BJP's major alliance partners are JD(U), Shiv Sena and Akali Dal. Except Nitish Kumar party all other groups are insignificant. And There is absolutely no chance of BJP winning over large number of coalition partners except in Andhra and Assam. Remember what happened when Samajwadi Party admitted Kalyan Singh to his party! If it can remotely hope to win partners, it is only in the post-poll phase. But that is going to be difficult because, by the time results are out, BJP's positioon will be further weaken and that will limit its ability to attract partners. Unfortunately for the BJP, if it wins one partner, the other may go against it. This is true in the case of Tamil Nadu, Uttar Pradesh etc. And if it loses the support of JD(U), then practically, it can not win any other partner anywhere.
 
The remote possibility is that it can allow Mayavati to become prime Minister to spoil the chance of Congress. That will be a gamble. BJP will be finished in Uttar Pradesh, if it does so. And upper castes from all over India may leave them. (But it can win-over other sections, it it really wants to). However, if Mayavati becomes Indian Prime Minister only for 6 months' period, it can wipe out Congress from Madhya Pradesh and many other states. And that will only help BJP in the long run.

In short, 2014 Lok Sabha election will mark the begining of the extinction of Congress at national level. A large number of its regional leaders will revolt and form its own outfits. In states like Andhra, Karnataka, Kerala, Orissa, Himachal Pradesh, Jharkhand, etc congress may split or further weaken.
 
After the 2014 general election, I dont think there will be any National Parties with Pan-India presence. There will only be National Coalitions with pan Indian Presence. As a major party Congress, sure will have major clout, but leaders like Manmohan, Rahul Gandhi et al will fade slowly into obscurity (Sonia still may play an important role, she was never a mass leader, and never going to be one), but mass leaders like Digvijay Singh and skillful arbitrators like Pranab Mukherjee will get more prominence. Left leaning Congress intellectuals like Jairam Ramesh, Mani Shankar Iyer will get more acceptance. Paper Tigers like S.M. Krishna, A.K Antony et al will be forgotten but those with backing of large regional or community groups will have a major say. Congress' alliance partners like Mamata, Kerala Congress etc will split into small groups. Even the right leaning CPM leaders like Budhadeb, Pinarayi et al will lose prominence. Many top Congress leaders like Manmohan Singh, AK Antony, P. Chidambaram et al will fade into obscurity.
 
Corporate groups like that of Mukesh Ambani, Bajaj, Jindal etc, which received undue favour during Congress regime will face some trouble. However, these corporates will be able to buy smaller groups and still manage to get things done. Anil Ambani who was cold-shouldered by Congress may get more prominence in the coming decades. Rural based leaders may influence the govt more compared to urban leaders, even if the ministers are going to be mostly from urban background.

The emergence of large number of regional political parties will also create certain issues. Many of these groups will have links with Caste, Religion and Regional base outfits.


If anyone doubt about this- Please think of what happened to Janata Party which came to power after emergency. Janata Party still exist as many small regional outfits, but not controlled by any central leadership. The Congress story is not going to be different.
(This above given main article was first published on 31st May 2011. Edited on 2nd June.)


 (On 12th August 2011, the following segment is appended AFTER the CNN-Hindu-CSDS-Yogendra Yadav State of the Nation Survey was out.)

The final episode of Yogendra Yadav Survey (CNN-Hindu) is out today.
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Please see this link for more-- http://www.thehindu.com/multimedia/archive/00752/State_of_the_Nation_752693a.pdf

National Level-

UPA- Likely to get  - 38 % (2% + Up from 2009)
NDA - Likely to get - 26 % (2% + Up)
Others likely to get - 36 % (4% - Down)

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Seats projection for Loksabha if elections are conducted now (Aug 2014)-

UPA -260 to 280 seats (got 262 in 2009)
NDA - 140 to 160 Seats (got 159 in 2009)
Others 113 to 133 seats (got 122 in 2009)
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UP- Parliament - Congress ahead
UP- Assembly - Mulayam ahead.
BJP is way behind. BSP down

Rajastan- Loksabha-  BJP slightly ahead of Congress
Rajastan- Assembly - BJP slightly ahead of Congress

Madhyapradesh Parliament - Congress comfortably ahead
Madhyapradesh Vidhan Soudha - Neck and Neck race


Maharashtra Parliament - NCP-Congress ahead
Maharashtra Vidhan Soudha - NCP-Congress ahead


Gujarath Parliament - BJP comfortably ahead
Gujarath Vidhan Soudha - BJP comfortably ahead


Bihar Parliament - NDA (Nitish + BJP) comfortably ahead
Bihar Vidhan Soudha - NDA (Nitish + BJP) comfortably ahead


West Bengal Parliament - Trinamool + Cong comfortably ahead
West Bengal  Assembly - Trinamool + Cong comfortably ahead

Orissa Parliament - Cong ahead
Orissa  Assembly - Naveen Patnaik ahead

Telgana Region of Andhra Parliament - TRS ahead, Cong, Jagan next TDP last
Telgana Region of Andhra Assembly- TRS ahead, Cong, Jagan next TDP last


Rest of Telagana Andhra Parliament - Jagan ahead, Cong next, TDP last
Rest of Telagana of Andhra Assembly- Jagan ahead, Cong next, TDP last


Karnataka Parliament - Congress ahead with huge lead.
Karnataka  Vidhan Soudha - Congress ahead


Tamil Nadu Parliament - Jayalalita ahead. Congress better than DMK
Tamil Nadu  Vidhan Soudha - Jayalalita ahead

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They predict big swing in favour of Congress in UP.

This survey is conducted immediately after UP firing, and Rahul Gandhi toured there. Hence, in that sense, if the UPA-2 is having any edge at the national level, that is because of the surge in favour of Rahul's Padayatras in UP. Here is a possibility and problem for Congress. Congress neither has an organization nor a social-group-base in UP. Immediately after Loksabha election (When Congress got 20 seats from UP, Congress' popularity fell (in the bi-elections.) . This means, Congress popularity is highly volatile in UP. What happens in UP is simple-- the ruling party BSP is not popular because of anti-farmers moves by Mayawati. But Samajwadi Party is unable to have a base among Non-Yadav communities (just like JD(S) failing to get support among Non-Vokkaligas in karnataka). As BJP is already finished in state and National level, (they exist in some other states), Congress is able to attract some sections by Padayatras. (Just like Kumaraswamy attracted through Janata Darshan which evaporated soon.)

The other big news is from Karnataka. Congress may make big gains. Again, this survey is conducted soon after the scams and Lokayukta reports. 2 years from now, voters may think differently. It is almost certain that, if BJP popularity declines, Congress will gain in non-Vokkaliga areas. But, I guess, after 2 years, Congress will be in a more difficult situatoin-- When the BJP goes out, it is almost certain that (despite what the survey talks about), Congress can not win elections alone at state level.  They have to depend on others (Janata Dal now). JD(S) can win what ever seats tehy want, without the help of Congress. But Congress my require JD support to win most seats. If Congress form alliance with JD, they will make inroads in other areas. If Congress refuse to make understanding  with JD, Congress will slowly fade away.  Congress needs some miracle to get some sympathy wave or something to win alone at state level. Or it needs the help of JD or the break-away group of present BJP.

The biggest surprise of this survey is from Tamil Nadu. Any one who has gone to Tamil Nadu knows that Jayalalita party doesnt have cadres and lost deposits in bi-elections earlier. She came to power just because of anti-corruption wave and because of good arithmatic (DMDMK's 10% votes). My understanding is that DMK is still very strong. But the survey says Congress is better than DMK. This is indeed shocking. But the survey analysts didnt explain this point. Sardesai did most of the talking, who doesnt have much knowledge. I wished Yogendra Yadav was allowed to explain these points.

Other findings are not surprising. Most results will change by the next 2 years. And according to me, the biggest change will be from UP. If Mulayam is able to come to power by his own (when votes are divided), he can not support Congress at national level. His supporting Congress at national level is hurting him is obvious from the projection for Loksabha (where Congress is more popular). This means that, Mulayam Yadav may have to take a very die-hard anti-Congress stand in the post election period. And he being a leader from largest state, will automatically get more visibility at national level. That will be a big change from now.

Second change is from Bihar. It is now inevitable for Nitish Kumar to dumb BJP at any cost. BJP is now stagnated in a few states and it is impossible for BJP to get alliance partners in the coming 10 - 20 years. The reason is simple. Where ever the BJP is strong, it is strong (except in Bihar) enough to form its own govt without others' support. And where ever the Non-Congress parties needs some extra support, BJP cant provide it, because they have no presence in these states. In most of these states, if the Non-Congress parties take the support of BJP, their existing minority presence will be eroded. In this context, BJP cant form a winnable National alliance for the next 10 to 20 years. However, any popular goverment will face anti-Incumbency after 5 to 8 years. Nitish Kumar is safe at this point. But any time a LaluYadav-Congress alliance can bounce back. That will be a very bad thing for Nitish Kumar. It will be impossible for Nitish Kumar to bounce back, once he loses power. BJP's support base is declining everywhere. To add to the problems, Narendra Modi is the only mass leader in BJP among the second generation. He has already showed willingness to move into national level. One has to understand that Nitish Kumar got section of Muslim votes and section of Yadav votes when he came to power. The only one reason why he got section of Muslim votes was his opposition to Narendra Modi. When LaluYadav-Congress alliance get more support when anti-incumbency mood set in, it will be difficult to get those votes in the future. The best thing for Nitish Kumar is to break the alliance with BJP just before next Loksabha elections (just like what Naveen Patnaik did in Orissa), and he can easily get a majority of minority votes and there is no way he can lose all upper-caste votes. This will ensure that BJP and Congress will fight each other for opposition space and the remaining Upper-Caste votes will be divided between them and there wont be much challenge for Nitish Kumar for another 10 years. Remember, CPM ruled West Bengal for long, by cleverly dividing Opposition votes. If Nitish dont do it, that will be the end of his political life.

The survey result in Andhra was in expected line. But again major change is happening. CBI may file a case against Jagan Soon. Congress will use its government machinery to tarnish the image of Jagan. It will be interesting to see how TDP handle this situation. Another interesting finding is that TDP is already finished in Telegana region. That will make him play an Anti-Telegana card in the rest of the Andhra. Congress is in real dilemma. If it cant do something for Telegana, it can neither get TRS support for next central Govt nor it can get numbers from that region. But if it does something for Telegana, they will face problem in the rest of Andhra.

A very interesting trend in this survey is that many state prefer one party for Loksabha but another party for Assembly election.


A good example is Orissa. There is hardly anything surprising here. People of a regional state thnik a Third Front Political party is not part of a National coalition with winnability. This is happening because WestBengal leaders of CPI(M) is preventing it from forming a PRE-POLL Alliance. No other group is capable of taking initiative to form a national alliance. The reason why Congress' projected share in Assembly election in Karnataka is relatively poorer than that of Loksabha is because Janata Dal perform well in Assembly elections in Old Mysore region. This is exactly why Mulayam's performance is poor in UP Parliament election, but do well in Assembly. The signal is clear. The Third Parties now need to form a Pre-Poll alliance, otherwise, they will face serious problem for existence.

The only immediate impact of this survey is that, Congress will dumb DMK soon and will try to work with Jayalalita soon. Or Congress will take a more agressive stand and force DMK to break away.

As the Crude Oil price is falling,  and there is a slowdown of USA and Europe Economy, it is expected that the rate of Inflation may come down in the coming months, if not in the coming years. This will create a favorable situation for ruling political parties in their respective states. As industrial performance in India is not affected as per the latest report, except in the export segment, there wont be any major job loss I guess. Overall, parties which head the regional govts would perform better in election conducted in the immediate future. No one knows what is in store for distant future.

 ------------------------------------
 (This above given main article was first published on 12th August 2011. Second part was added on 2nd June.)

 (On 9th March, 2012, the following segment is appended AFTER the Assembly Elections Results to Uttar Pradesh, Punjab, Goa and Manipur are announced.)

Can Rahul Gandhi Revive Congress at National Level?

I am not a big political pundit and I have not added any comment above recently. I dont think I need to add much here, in the wake of the Assembly election results to Uttar Pradesh (Punjab, Goa and Manipur - February- March 2012) is announced.

The only point I would like to clarify is this-- Parliament Elections are different from Assembly Elections. People DONT VOTE FOR ANY POLITICAL PARTY OR ANY COALITION. Rather, people vote against their main opponents. But this doesnt mean, you can always get all the votes simply by opposing others. I would certainly add my review on current political scenario, to the this blog, when ever the time permit.

Rahul Gandhi indeed worked hard. And ACCORDING TO ME, HE IS QUITE SUCCESSFUL IN HIS EFFORTS, to win back votes in Uttar Pradesh. After all, he is less responsible for the current predicament of Congress. The mainstream media can only glorify VICTORS in the race. In the eyes of media, those who get majority and runner up only are victors.

Where Rahul Gandhi failed is in understanding the society. He keeps talking about long term strategy. This is exactly where he failed. He neither has a strategy nor has the ability to understand the ground situation. Digvijay Singh, Rahul Brigade and all others (though I admire their abilities design strategies) see only the short term trend. They fail to notice the long term trend. Clearly Congress is fading away from Indian political space. Why?

Why did the OBCs desert congress? Why did the Minorities desert Congress? Why were Dalits lured by Mayawati?

Can Rahul Gandhi sleep in a handful number of Dalit houses and win back those who gave cold shoulder to the party?

Sure, Rahul can win the heart of masses by such goodwill gestures, and can get short term results in a very local level.  But can an individual, even if he/she is a very shrewd and charismatic, win over all those communities and sections of people who abandoned the party over decades?

And what is the number one priority for the Congress? i) To win 10 odd seats in a certain regional state in one or two elections or ii) to maintain its ability to cobble winnable coalitions at national level?

Congress has not yet identified its priority, simply because Congress has not yet understood the ground situation. Congress has no dearth for Doctors who prescribe all types of medicines without even understanding the disease.

The fact remains that, the problems faced by 10% of Indian Adivasis are not the same as that of the educated youth living in Metros. Even the rural Landlord Farmers cant understand the problems faced by 16% of Indian Dalits. Congress is not even sensitive in understanding the difficulties of its coalition partners. But it seems, some people are successful in  misguiding Rahul Gandhi. Unfortunately, or fortunately, Rahul Gandhi is the biological son of his father, and there is no  wonder why Rahul simply doesn't understand what is commonsense knowledge for the rest.

If Rahul Gandhi tries to build organization based on a long term policy, he may have to identify who are those sections he can bring into his fold. We all know that it is easy to attract highly ambitious and unrealistic urban middle class. But they would quickly get disillusioned. Any political party which is looking for long-term results should cultivate social segments like, small farmers, agricultural workers, industrial workers, unorganized workers, Dalits, Adivasis and those who are desperately looking for support from power centers. Urban middle class and elites always think they can get things done by using their "connections". It is easy to rally marginalized identity groups like Adivasis, Dalits or minorities under one flag, but when one identity based group start occupying the political space, it would, consequently, drive all opposing identity groups out of that party.

If any political party is seriously trying to build a long term mass base, then they need to first identify, what are the set of policy paradigms that are acceptable and unacceptable to these segments. Congress and Rahul Gandhi already know the answers to these questions is evident from the fact that he is seriously making efforts to become the voice of agrarian communities threatened with land acquisitions in various regional states. But at present, Rahul Gandhi's own political party is funded by Corporate, who push certain policy agendas. Elections in India has become very expensive and major political parties can not imagine to function without the fund received from top. It is extremely difficult to find finance for your political party if you want to organize people at grass root level. Otherwise you need to take the NGO route to get foreign funds.

It is almost suicidal for most big National parties to take up the issues of the most under privileged. Rhetoric cant yield any result. And when you start seriously addressing the causes of marginalized sections, then they are bound to lose the support of Corporates and creamy layer of the society. Instead of taking this bumpy ride, most national political parties, in the future, would tend to flare up the regional aspirations or try to rally behind some identity based slogans. In both cases, national parties would inevitably undermine national cohesion of the very party. This simply means, such parties would of course spread their base by winning over new regional groups and new identity based groups, but in that process, would disintegrate into several small groups. This is exactly what had happened to Janata Parivar, when they gave up their earlier ideological moorings and Socialist outlook and tried to address the regional aspirations and Caste/community sentiments. This is exactly what is waiting for Rahul Gandhi's Congress. Rahul Congress can survive long as a national coalition of split away Congress-groups, but Rahul himself will play NO key role in shaping the direction of such a political movement. At least Rahul brigade is quite capable of using Social Networking sites or online matrimonial sites to find a "nayi bahu" for him. That will be a silver lining.

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 (On 31st October, 2013, the following segment is appended.)

  Can Jayalalitha Become the Prime Minister of India?

(This section is added on 31st October, 2013.)

Jayalalitha has a better chance to become the Prime Minister of India.

I dont say, Jayalalitha will be the preferred choice of all third front partners. But one factor that favours her is, she is unlikely to be opposed by all three major Political Blocks. Except Narendra Modi, all BJP leaders may not oppose her. Once Jayalalita becomes PM, she is unlikely to support Modi to that post in the future.). Congress knows that if Jayalalitha forms a Govt, she will be depended on the outside support of Congress. (Yes, she can switch loyalty later and take the support of BJP to dump Congress). The Left leaders may not be very happy to support her as the Prime Minister immediately after the elections. But Left parties won’t be able to oppose Jayalalitha beyond a point. If Jayalalitha is unreliable, so is BSP or Mulayam Singh.

In fact, brighter are the chances of Jayalalitha becoming the Prime Minister after the first arrangement collapsing. Let us assume that Jayalalitha or any other regional party leader becomes Prime Minister with the outside support of the single largest Formation that is NDA. If Jayalalitha is supported from outside by BJP, is she going to be loyal to BJP for the next 5 years?

We need to understand a little about the personality trait of Jayalalitha the individual. she said to have a love-hate relationship with almost every one in her life. Her deep insecurity feelings prevents her from trusting anyone infinitely. It is only a matter of time, when she is going to fall out with BJP (even if she is supported by BJP). She is not going to be comfortable to be bowed down to the pressures exerted by the bigger coalition partners. That may make her the biggest enemy of BJP.  For the same reasons, Left Parties may not prefer Jayalalita becoming the Prime Minister on the first instance. But Jayalalitha of 2013 is a more sober, mellowed political personality. She may be impulsive. But compared to all other third front leaders (except left leaders) and most of the BJP leaders, she is a studious person. Very brilliant in her studies.

Let me quote Mani Shankar Iyer: "Yet, from what I have been able to glean from girls who were at school with Jayalalitha, it is clear that she was among the most outstanding students of her generation and would have done well in any profession she cared to take up. ". The world is going to quote this prophetic words again and again.

Think of it. Jayalalitha may have accomplished all what she has accomplished now, through backdoor. But she knows that, and she believes -- she is could have achieved much more with her hard word and skills. She may not be super-intelligent. But who is super intelligent in Indian politics now? If Jayalalitha had continued her studies, she would have ended up a top IAS officer in India. At this age, there is one post beckoning her. She knows that it is not an ordinary post. She may show greater diplomacy to continue in that post and try to become more flexible and accommodative.

If Indian Corporate media is obsessed with Modi, then, that shows, their poor insight. Every corporate and every one with vested interest is busy praising Modi. A good example is Swamy, who started demanding SPG security for Modi, by pleasing this man, hoping that he can get finance minister post, if he comes to power.

One problem with influential community members (be this “community” – caste group or business families) they always think, they have better insight than the rest. Cho Ramaswamy has been keep advising against Dravidian parties for more than 40 years, those who listen to his advises always sat in the opposition. Yet, Cho Ramaswamy believes, he is eligible to advise political leaders.

Let us assume that a few more communal violence and a serial bomb blast some where closer to Mangalore/Bangalore/Shimoga will help NDA to come to power. So what?

What these corporate do not see is the larger picture. Is NDA growing in India? And is this group going to wield clout on Indian society for the next 20 years? Even if this NDA comes to power how long is it going to last? What are these corporate going to achieve?

Contrary to that, a lady who was born in Mysore has better chance of becoming PM (immediately after the 2014 election or after the fall of the first coalition arrangement (with the backing of NDA or UPA Plus Left, as the second govt).

Who is the biggest threat to Modi? Ironically, it is this impulsive and naive leader whom Cho Ramaswamy advices to become junior partner to Modi. Whom these Chanakyas advises to utilize the service of left cadres during the campaign and then utilize the fluid political situation to dump Left parties to embrace NDA.

I just mentioned Cho as one example. (Cho himself may not be doing all these) He represents what the rest of vested interests do. When will these people realize that even a coalition which ousts Congress from power needs the outside support of (one of the break-away) faction of Congress or the undivided Congress. Again, what are these Corporate going to gain?

If Arvind Kejriwal wins 20 – 25 seats from Delhi, wouldn’t that embolden AAP to field more candidates during 2014 Loksabha elections or not? And whose urban votes Kejriwal is going to divide? Again, who is going to be at loss?

The model of media business itself is crumbling. Tell me which newspaper in India, increased its readership during the last 10 years, despite the impressive growth in circulation? And who doesn’t know that “increase in circulation = more loss” and increase in readership = more advt revenue, and we all know what is the cost per single copy and what is the real revenue of media. And we all know that the TV media is only a transitional phenomena, before internet media takes dominance.

No wonder, all media groups are losing. And still they think they are super intelligent management guys.

A victory for Modi, may be a short term relief for BJP, til that govt falls due to internal contradictions. But what will happen to BJP if it fails to get the vote of confidence after the President calls the single largest pre-poll alliance leader to form the govt? All committed leaders with long term association with BJP are sidelined. How many of these BJP leaders in what directions they will jump, only time will tell. Who is going to rebuild BJP after that? Are Gujarati Hotel owners from USA going to return back to India to wear khaki chaddies and work for Modi to rebuild Rashitriya Swamasevak Sangh once again?

10 years back, all these corporate were praising Chandra Babu Naidu. 5 yeas back these corporates were praising Brand Budha. Now it is Modi, who is praised.

---------------

Who has better chance to become the next Prime Minister of India?

(This essay is first published on 21st Dec 2013)

Till recently, I was of the opinion that Jayalalitha has better chance to become the Prime Minister of India. I called her educated but naive earlier. One more instance for her naivety is displayed when she announced her decision to contest all 39 +1 Loksabha seats from Tamil Nadu + Pondichery. Even if she had conducted survey across Tamil Nadu (using any agencies or state intelligence wing), that is a stupid decision after DMK severed its ties with Congress. People were angry with DMK for not preventing the assassination of Prabhakaran.

There is one strong reason why Jayalalitha may not be elected as Prime Minister after 2014 Loksabha election. If anyone who has watched Tamil Nadu politics can easily understand that, AIADMK doesn't have much influence in Tamil Nadu today. When DMDK of Vijayakant was formed most of the 10% votes that went to Vijayakat party was AIADMK followers. Jayalalitha even lost deposit in by-election. But AIADMK was able to bounce back in Tamil Nadu politics because of four reasons

1) Massive anti-corruption wave
2) Massive anti center feeling because of the assassination of Prabhakaran and the role Congress played (or the lack of it).
3) Acute electricity power problem.
4) Good arithmetic. Coming together of small parties under AIADMK leadership and projecting a winnable coalition before the assembly election as an alternative to DMK.


If AIADMK contest independently, then-

1) Jayalalitha will no longer be leading a larger political coalition. If DMK is able to get the support of Pattali Makkal Katchi, Vaiko, DMDK etc, the political situation will change in Tamil Nadu.

2) There is no massive anti corruption feeling working against Karunanidhi now.

3) There is anger against DMK and Congress. But the public anger is targeted more against Congress. DMK has severed its alliance with Congress, at least for now.

4) There is a significant percentage of Brahmin votes in Tamil Nadu. If BJP and AAP contest large number of seats in Tamil Nadu, some of the upper caste votes may be divided. Vijayakant party is almost dead. However, DMDK can still take away some of Jayalalitha's Dalit vote base.

5) CPM has organizational strength in Tamil Nadu. If CPM doesn't support Jayaalitha, that will cause some problem for AIADMK.


6) Jayalalitha was unable to solve electricity power problem till today.  However, her food security programme has made her very popular.



In short, there is a possibility that Jayalalitha may not be able to win 30 plus seats in Tamil Nadu, if she contest independently.

Nevertheless, Jayalalitha today is very popular in Tamil Nadu. If she is projected as Prime Ministerial candidate, she may still get 39 + 1 = 40 seats.

Who else has the chance of becoming next Prime Minister of India?

Nitish Kumar- A good chance (with 9 to 14 seats)

Mulayam - Some chance (with 25 seats) - But Mayawati (and arguably Mamata Banerjee also) will oppose him. Mayawati will oppose him for obvious reasons. Mulayam effectively fooled Mamata earlier,  on the occasion of President election. Mamata and Mulayam formed a federal front and proposed the name of APJ Abdul Kalam but Mulayam later sided with Congress. Second reason- Mamata's single most important agenda is to see that CPI(M) is not getting upperhand in National politics. Mulayam is closer to Left, hence Mulayam may not be her most favourite candidate as Prime Minister. She would never want to see that existing President and Prime Minister of the country are from her rival camp. And if possible, she would like to see, Prime Minister and President of India are from her camp. That is why, Mamata opposed Pranab as President initially. The same Mamata supported Pranab Mukherjee as a President, when no option was left for her. Similarly, she would try to see that the next Prime Minister of India is from "own camp". Some one will obey her dictates. Someone who will dance according to her tunes. Problem with Mulayam is that, he would prefer to dance according to the tune of --

Anil Ambani
Subrata Roy
Corporate houses
Arms Brokers
Yadav caste politics
Aslam khan
conservative ideological vision (anti women, anti-lokpal and so on),
religious and communal pressure groups
left parties
other regional parties
Congress

Mulayam will listen to the words of Mamata Banerjee after all above. Mulayam will give least preference to Mayawati.

The problem is -- Mayawati will get more loksabha seats than Mulayam. So, other parties wont listen to Mulayam beyond a point. If they dump 25 seats of Mulayam, they can be hopeful of the support of 31 seats of Mayawati. Mayawati is very unlikely to become the Prime Minister. (This point is discussed in this article earlier -- http://moronsview.blogspot.in/2011/05/2014-loksabha-election-resuts-congress.html ). Hence, if Mulayam is rejected as Prime Minister by other regional parties, there are two advantages for them-- 1) All others can now dream of Prime Minister post. 2) They got 31 seats of Mayawati in their camp, instead of 25 seats of Mulayam.

Exactly for the same reasons, Left parties will initially propose the name of Mulayam Singh as the Prime Ministerial candidate, to be rejected by all other parties. Left parties would achieve two things with this move. One-- they get the support of Mulayam's 25 MPs for the collective bargain later. That means, 30-32 seats of Left and 25 seats of Mulayam will become the single largest pressure group after BJP and Congress, if Left propose the name of Mulayam as Prime Minister Candidate.


But, in my view, Mulayam may secretly try to seek the outside support of BJP for his Prime Minister post, but that would not materialize for two reasons. If BJP ever propose Mulayam or Mayawati as Prime Minister of India, then they can never imagine to get 5 seats from Uttar Pradesh for the next ten years in Loksabha elections. That means, BJP can never imagine to form a Govt at center for the next 10 years, as winning sizable number of seats from Uttar Pradesh is crucial to form the National govt in India.

Hence, we can safely argue that, BJP wont support Mulayam Singh as the next Prime Minister of India. For this simple reason, Left will always propose his name as the next Prime Minister of India.

Congress may support Mulayam Singh as the next Prime Minister, but would never support Mayawati as next Prime Minister. If Maywati ever become the Prime Minister of India, her BSP will take away majority of the Congress vote base of Madhya Pradesh, Rajastan,  Delhi, Gujarat, Haryana, Himachal Pradesh, Punjab, Chattisgarh  and so on. If BJP supports Mayawati, that will create and issue for next ten years only. After ten years, they can still imagine to regain their political dominance, simply because they have an organization. But if Congress supports Mayawati, that will be the end of Congress. Congress can never bounce back, because, they don't have organization at grass root level, but only have mass following. If BJP supports Mayawati, then that will force a re-alignment of the caste and class constituency of BJP. That is possible. But if that happens, then it is going to be a miracle. The whole upper-caste followers of BJP will dump it overnight, if BJP support Mayawati as Prime Minister.

Can Mamata become Prime Minister? No.But...

If Congress fails to get 100 plus seats and if BJP fails to get 175 seats, Mamata Banerjee has good chance to become Prime Minister.

Her main agenda is to keep Left out of power. As long as CPI(M) is led by Prakash Karat, left will not participate in Government. For Mamata, it is more important to see that her arch rivals are not influencing the  National govt. She would go for any sacrifice to achieve that goal. If BJP fails to form the next Union Government in India, Mamata Banerjee WILL FORM THE FOURTH FRONT AFTER 2014 LOKSABHA ELECTIONS, and this Fourth Front will be supported by BJP from outside for next one year. This is a strong possibility.

But who are the constituents of this fourth front?

All non Congress, Non BJP parties, except the friends of Left.

Mamata Banerjee will get 30 to 34 seats from Bengal. But Left will make a near clean sweep in Kerala (even if BJP win a surprise seat this time), and a clean sweep in Tripura. As the Congress, Trinamool Congress contest each other, Left parties wont lose too many existing Loksabha seats in West Bengal, especially, in the backdrop of Sharadha Chit scam. (This is not to say, Mamata is unpopular. Mamata is still hugely popular in West Bengal. And people like Budhadeb is hated by rural population). And Left will also win 30 plus seats. Mamata Banerjee lacks strategy and a principled stand. She is unpredictable. The main attraction of Left is that, their 30 to 32 MPs are a free bonus. You dont need to give Prime Minister post or Minister post to these MPs. In a situation, where Left and Mamata win almost equal number of seats, most regional parties would prefer Left simply because they are reliable partners with predictable policy and political stands. Who would like to form a govt with the support of an individual who would dictate others to dance according to her whims and fancies. No such govt will last for more than 3 months.

Nevertheless, people like Naveen Patnaik may prefer Mamata Banerjee simply because, it is the CPI (and not CPI(M)) which is in the forefront of agitations against mining mafia in Orissa. Secondly, the neo-liberal group within CPI(M) led by Budhadeb Battacharya is much weakened now. Most centrist parties would have been happier to see CPI(M) is led by people like Jyothi Basu, Budhadeb or Sitaram Yechury, who are/were having pro-corporate views within CPI(M). Of course, as part of their strategy, Congress would officially propose the name of Budhadeb or Yechury to lead Govt and they would offer outside support. (mainly to divide CPI(M) camp) But as the pro-neo-liberal group lacks influence among the masses today, it is unlikely that CPI(M) would participate in the next government.

Even if Naveen Patnaik, Mamata Banerjee and Nitish Kumar form a coterie, they are unlikely to influence the majority of regional party leaders. The only one reason why this fourth group will be put together, because the BJP want to ride piggy back on this fourth front. Hence it is going to be the BJP which is the real power center behind the fourth group.

What is going to happen after the 2014 loksabha election is simple.

If the BJP fails to form the next govt (That BJP cant form a govt is almost certain), then many parties will come together under the banner of so called 3rd front. The arch rivals of the constituent parties of this 3rd front parties would come together to form 4th front- a loose political pressure group.

This fourth front may not be formed based on any principle or ideological stand. The constituent parties will be mutually distrusting. Yet, their number will not be that insignificant.

This is because out of some 220 Non Congress Non BJP party MPs getting elected to 2014 loksabha are all fighting each other in their respective regional states. Like AIADMK of Jayalalitha and DMK of Karunanidhi. Or Chandra Babu Naidu, Chandrashekar Rao and Jagan Reddy. Or Lalu and Nitish Kumar.

These rival parties can not come under same banner. Hence it is inevitable that, there would be a third front and then a fourth front after the next general election.

This implies, the third front as a group can not form the govt without the outside support of either Congress or BJP.

Total Number of Congress MPs after 2014 Loksabha election wont touch three digits. Besides, AAP would divide Congress vote base more than that of BJP vote base for two simple reasons-- 1) BJP vote base is consolidated in a few Loksabha constituencies, where they have clear dominance as of now. AAP taking away 3 to 6% of BJP votes wont make much problem to BJP. But AAP taking away 1 to 10% of votes of Congress will affect the winnability of their candidates in more constituencies, compared to BJP. But even if the AAP doesnt take away a single percentage of BJP votes, that would do more damage to BJP than to the Congress. This is because, in the coming Loksabha election, Congress is a sure loser. AAP taking away a few more percentage of votes is not a big issue. When AAP die their natural death (after three four years) these votes would go back to Congress (at least that is a possibility.). But the small percentage of urban votes that AAP takes away, would have reached the NDA kitty, if there was a more direct fight between Congress and BJP. In effect, AAP's participation in elections would ensure that BJP would never cross the psychological 200 mark in the  next Loksabha election.

If BJP dont cross 200 marks that means BJP can now think of supporting the ruling coalition from outside, and it can not imagine to form the next government. Here is where the pathetic brains of BJP strategists failed miserably.

As of today, BJP has a good chance of forming the next govt.

But if they don't form the next govt, they are not going to influence much control on any govt that is going to be formed.

Why?


Simple. With a polarizing campaign during the pre-poll period, BJP ensured that the society also is polarized, and that has contributed to the "untouchability" factor. In short, BJP is more untouchable in Indian politics under the leadership of the evil politician. The whole opposition against Congress is that they are in power. The moment, the Congress declares that they are not after power, most of the political parties would make friendship with them to help form the next govt.

There are two more factors why Congress is more acceptable to other regional parties compared to BJP under the leadership of evil leader.

Congress doesn't have firm ideological stand. Manmohan Singh and Manishankar Iyer represent two opposing ideological visions.

But today's BJP can not imagine to ignore Corporate after accepting their money and support.

On the question of secularism, Congress is more acceptable than BJP. If regional parties accept BJp's outside support their minority vote base (Mamata, Jayalalita, Nitish, Lalu, Mulayam, Mayawati, Omar examples) would be washed off.

Congress doesn't have cadre base in the grass root level. Congress can not organize militant struggle agaisnt the ruling Govt and take the control away. But BJP with RSS backing can pose real threat to any govt if they take outside support from BJP.


However, there is the most important factor that favours BJP when they want to control the next govt. That is numbers. BJP will have at least 75 to 100 MPs more than Congress in the next Loksabha. Here is a tricky situation. There is good possibility that, No govt can be formed after the next election, even if Congress and Third front parties come together. But BJP with its 160 to 190 seats can extend support to any third or fourth front leader and such a leader will become the next government.



I dont imagine that there will be a big change in the leadership within BJP after the next Loksabha election. That means, BJP's strategy after the results are announced would be to find new friends for the 2015/2016 Loksabha elections.


BJP would support any third front leader who may help BJP to form the govt in the 2015/2016 Loksabha election. Who are these leaders?

1) Jayalalitha (DMK will further split and they are of very little use)
2) Mamata Banerjee

3) Naveen Patnaik

4) Lalu Prasad Yadav

5) Chandra Babu Naidu

6) Jagan Reddy

7) Chandrashekar Rao

9) Existing partners of NDA

10) Other small parties like Pattali Makkal Katchi, Vaiko and so on.

If Cho Ramaswamy himself declares that, Jayalalitha is the second best candidate as Prime Minister for NDA, that indicates what RSS leadership think.

But there is small problem.

If the BJP supports Jayalalitha, what is going to be BJP's game plan?

If BJP joins Jayalalitha Govt as junior partner, that will undermine the BJP at national level. Neither BJP would be able to exert any influence on such a govt nor it can stay away from the taints of scams and corruptions of that govt. Obviously, BJP will try to give outside support to Jayalalitha.

But if BJP ever gives outside support to Jayalalita, when are they going to pull down that government? At some point, they should pull down that govt, right? Otherwise, people will forget about BJP slowly and come to the conclusion that regional parties can give stable govt at center.


As there is this anti-defection law in India, there would be only one party that can bring down Jayalalitha govt, if it is formed with BJP support after 2014. That is BJP itself. (who else would try to bring down the govt? Naveen? Mamata? Why should they bring down a govt which they influence? They may make all right noises against their own govt for publich consumption, but if they bring down that govt, they may lose everything. It will only help their political opponents to seize the opportunity.

The only one party which is in a hurry to bring down that govt will be BJP itself. Even if the BJP wont bring down the govt for next two years, it will organize large number of communal riots through out India to polarize the society. (like what they did when they were partners of coalition govts in Karnataka and Gujarat (Chimanbhai) )

Here is the problem.

Jayalalitha may be willing to support soft hindutva line. But Jayalalitha is the Chief Minister who arrested Shankaracharya and there is only one art Jayalitha knows in her life. That is to control, dominate, subjugate and humiliate others. If anyone who tries to control Jayalalitha will automatically become her number one enemey. If BJP withdraws support to Jayalalitha, ten others will come forward to support her. If BJP wont withdraw support to Jayalalitha, their mass base will shift towards AAP, congress and other parties.

Yet, Jayalalitha becoming the Prime Minister of India, with BJP support is a major possibility. And at some point, BJP bringing down that govt with the help of other groups also is a good possibility. But it will be interesting to see how two arrogant, self centered and polarizing leaders co-exist in one coalition.

Jayalalitha may become the Prime Minister with the support of either BJP or Congress.

However, according to me, BJP may also try to support Naveen Patnaik,  Mamata Banerjee, Sharad Pawar, Or a senior leader of Akali Dal


BJP will not support Chandra Babu Naidu, or Jagan Reddy as Prime Minister, simply because that will alienate all other Andhra Political groups from BJP.

BJP will not support DMK, MDMK, Pattali Makkal Katchi and AGP leaders as Prime Minister because they wont be having large number of MPs in the 2014 Loksabha.

BJP will not suport support Deve Gowda, Yechury, Siddaramaiah, Budhadeb, Omar Abdulla because of ideological reasons.

BJP will not support Nitish Kumar as Prime Minister because of ego clash between top leaders.

BJP  will not  support Lalu Yadav as Prime Minister (in 2014 - we are not sure about future) because it may adversely affect their image.


BJP may project an individual with positive public image (like Gen VK Singh, Anna Hazare) as Prime Minister Candidate and request all other parties to support him. However, this strategy wont work in today's politics.

BJP will not support Mayawati and Mulayam as Prime minister. The reasons are explained in this article.

In today's political situation, people like Sushma Swaraj or LK Advani et al will not become Prime Minister, because, everyone knows who would be the real power center. Most of the third/fourth group parties who are willing to support Advani or Sushma as Prime Minister are willing to support Modi as Prime Minister.

Hence, if a govt is formed after 2014 Loksabha election with the support of BJP, then.

One of these individuals would become Prime Minister

a) Narendra Modi, b) Jayalalitha, c) Naveen Patnaik, d) Sharad Pawar or e) Mamata Banerjee

If a govt is formed after 2014 Loksabha election with support from congress, then,
One of these leaders would  become Prime Minister

a) Jayalalitha, b) Mulayam Singh Yadav, c) Nitish Kumar, d) Mamata Banerjee,  e) Naveen Patnaik, f) Farook Abdulla, g) Sharad Pawar

Congress will not form a coalition govt with outside support from Left (will not have the numbers). Congress and UPA neither would get majority nor they would get the required numbers to form the govt next time. Hence --

Rahul Gandhi will not become Prime Minister after 2014 elections
No other person from congress will become Prime Minister.

Congress may support the idea of a popularly accepted person leading a third front Govt. But Congress doesnt have political authority to control people like Anna Hazare or Justice Rajendra Sachar. Congress may like the idea of a prominent Industrialist/public figure leading a third front govt with Congress supporting from outside. But most Industrialists lack knowledge about how to handle coalition politics. Hence, that possibility can be ruled out.

Hence it is almost certain that next Prime Minister of India will be one of the following people:

 a) Narendra Modi, b) Jayalalitha, c) Naveen Patnaik, d) Sharad Pawar e) Mamata Banerjee, f) Mulayam Singh Yadav, g) Nitish Kumar, h) Farook Abdulla.

Among all these leaders, Jayalalitha has the highest possibility of becoming the next Prime Minister of India, followed by Naveen Patnaik, Nitish Kumar and Mamata Banerjee.

-------------------------------

What if Congress forms Alliance with BSP of Mayawati and RJD of Lalu?

(This section is added on 26th December 2014)

There are 40 Loksabha seats in Bihar and 80 Loksabha seats from Uttar Pradesh.
The Caste Composition in Uttar Pradesh:
OBC     45
Yadavs 9
Kurmi - 4 to 9
Lodh - 3 to 6
Muslims 18.5
Dalit population - 21
(Jatavs-Dalits - 12 %
8-9% non-Jatav dalits)
Brahmins - 9.2 -
Thakurs 7.2
Intermediate Caste-
Jats - 1.6 %
Section of Jats, Lodhs, Section of Kurmis, Brahmins and Thakurs may vote for BJP
Majority of Yadavs and more than half of Muslims may vote for SP.
Many Kurmis, small percentage of Jats, Dalits and a little less than Half of Muslims may vote for BSP - Congress combine.
In this context, BSP Congress combine can win more than 40 seats without any difficulty. It can even go upto 50 seats.

Similarly LaluPrasad- Congress alliance in Bihar can garner majority of the seats from Bihar.

In Uttar Pradesh, Mulayam Singh will be the clear loser, if Congress and BSP come together. Similarly, in Bihar Nitish Kumar could be the clear loser.

-----------------------------------

Will Rahul Gandhi become Prime Minister of India after 2014 Loksabha Elections? What is Congress' game plan?

Now that the News is breaking in, indicating that Prime Minister Manmohan Singh is going to resign and Rahul Gandhi will swear in as the next Prime Minister of India before the Loksabha Election.

(This essay is first published on 31st Dec 2013) 

 As it is discussed here  earlier - It is absolutely impossible for Congress to form a govt after 2014 Loksabha elections, on its own.

But Congress has done a few clever moves which have ensured that BJP now has ABSOLUTELY NO CHANCE TO FORM THE NEXT GOVERNMENT. This is exactly why the news reports appeared “BJP looks to bring more parties into NDA fold“. This exactly why Yeddyurappa is hurriedly taken back to BJP, despite Yeddyurappa proposing tough conditions.

This also shows that Gujaratis have some of the finest brains in the world. Not all Gujaratis are Daddas (idiots) like Narendra Modi. If we dont know who is that Gujarati, who is forming Strategies of Congress and made these clever moves for Congress, then we are not eligible to discuss Indian Politics-- It is none other than Ahmed Patel.

Well, as it is pointed out in the blog earlier, Congress had already done discussions with BSP in Uttar Pradesh and Lalu Prasad Yadav in Bihar. Uttar Pradesh has 80 seats and Bihar has 40 seats. Narendra Modi, as we understood from NDTV videos, engineered communal riots in Uttar Pradesh, hoping it can bring Jat vote bank in Western Uttar Pradesh to BJP's fold. I feel, BJP is successful in this game plan. As Jat population in general, has a problem with Samajwadi Party's Muslim Politics, and they always thought they enjoyed more political influence in Uttar Pradesh and in India compared to Yadavs (when Charan Singh was their UP leader), section of Jats, it appears are now rallied against Samajwadi party. This is why Sonia Gandhi promised to give OBC status to Jats. BJP has prominent leaders from non-Yadav OBC castes and they already enjoy the support of Brahmins and Thakurs. The strategy of BJP is to rally all Non-Yadav OBCs, Thakurs, and  Brahmins under BJP to oppose Samajwadi’s Yadav-Muslim alliance.

In a clear move, Congress made discussions with Mayawati. If Mayawati, forms electoral alliance with Congress, she can ensure that Samajwadi Party is permanently kept out of power in Uttar Pradesh. In return BSP-Congress alliance can win approx 45 seats or more from Uttar Pradesh. This is a brilliant move. The clear loser in Uttar Pradesh is going to be Samajwadi Party.

Same thing is going to happen in Bihar. Either under the leadership of Rabri Devi or son, Lalu is going to join hand with Congress. Lalu-Congress alliance has better chance to win, compared to BJP and Nitish Kumar. It is Nitish Kumar, who is going to be the clear loser in Bihar.

But the ray of hope is how Aam Admi Party would perform in these states. Aam Aadmi party would eat into the votes of BJP and Congress and third front parties with rural base would get benefits.

Congress is said to be making discussions with Mamata Banerjee in West Bengal. In West Bengal, the only popular CPI(M) leader Abdur Rezzak Mollah has already announced his decision to quit CPI(M) after coming Loksabha election. It is very likely that Abdur Rezzak Mollah along with Presenjit Bose, would form a genuine Communist Party in Bengal and later join with other rebel leaders of Kerala, Punjab, Maharashtra and Tamil Nadu. CPM is going to face major set back in West Bengal, mainly because people of West Bengal hate Budhadeb Bhattacharjee. However, Mamata- Congress combine can not make an impressive victory in West Bengal. There would be infighting between Congress and Mamata, even if they join hands in Bengal. Left is sure to win approx 30 seats from all over India. However, if Congress forms a pre-poll or post poll alliance with Mamata, that is one more plus point for Congress to form a Govt at center after the 2014 Loksabha Elections. Interestingly, the presence of Aam Aadmi party would have major impact in West Bengal Politics. The urban vote bank of CPI(M) (that support Brahmin lobby like Budhadeb) would be washed away and rural base would go with Mollah. Interestingly section of Mamata followers who are disappointed with Sharada and similar scams would also support AAP.

CPM can not form any understanding with Congress before or after Congress, under Manmohan Singh is clear. In an interview with Karan Thapar, Prakash Karat had openly stated that Manmohan Singh is an agent of USA and it is the USA which is determining india's policy was known to them even before Wikileaks revealing secret documents, is there in the public domain. CPM's party congress has decided NOT TO support any Congress govt after 2014 Loksabha Elections.

It is interesting, thus, when Prakash Karat declares that Aam Aadmi Party can emerge as an alternative to Congress and BJP in India. This means, CPM would initially propose the Name of any third front leader or an Aam Aadmi Party leader as the Prime Minister Candidate after 2014 Loksabha Election, as a joint Third Front Candidate, if election is going to throw up a hung parliament.

According to me, Congress cannot form a Govt after 2014 Losabha Elections even if Rahul Gandhi's present Govt come with major sops  and populist schemes to people, UPA won’t be able to come to power in the next Loksabha Election.  If Congress insists that, one of its nominees be made Prime Minister, then parties like AIADMK with highest number of MPs other than BJP and Congress would move towards NDA.

This is why Congress wants Nanden Nilelkani to contest to Loksabha. If the post Loksabha election scenario is not favourable for Rahul Gandhi to head a Non- BJP govt with support from a few third front parties, Congress would (unsuccessfully) push Nanden Nilelkani as Prime Minister.

But,  the Prakash Karat group of CPM may rally behind Aam Admi Party (which is expected to win Loksabha seats in double digits (perhaps upto 30 seats) , Mulayam , Jayalalitha or Nitish Kumar et al. Budhadeb group is will try to support Congress government in return for supporting CPM in regional state elections.

 If Rahul Gandhi becomes Prime Minister of india before the present Loksabha is dissolved and if Congress is successful to form a pre-poll alliance with BSP, then it is certain that the next National Government in India would be formed under the Third Front Prime Minister with outside support from Congress. And in such a scenario, no Govt will be formed in India with outside or inside control from BJP.

And in every possibility, BJP is going to suffer a humiliating defeat, and that will cause a lot of internal bickering in BJP. I will be surprised if a large number of BJP leaders do not challenge Narendra Modi’s leadership. According to me, one thing will be proved after the 2014 Loksabha election—People with evil mind may be able to influence some people for some time, but ultimately people with some intelligence can only make any impact in social life.


 -----------------------------------------------------------------

2014 Loksabha Election Survey - Aam Aadmi Party -AAP, 25% back Arvind Kejriwal as Prime Minister- Times of India.

(This section was added on 12th January, 2014)

44% of voters in India's top metropolises say they will vote AAP for Lok Sabha: Times of India opinion poll.
 
In big metros of India 25% of people consider Arvind Kejriwal as better Prime Minister candidate and Rahul gandhi with 14% support, is in the third position. If we can believe the findings of Time of India-IPSOS, 58% voters believe Modi as better prime minister candidate. However this finding is based on the survey among voters from major Metros. This survey doesnt represent the voters from small towns and rural India.

Interestingly, 44% voters say if an AAP candidate contest from their constituency, they would vote to AAP. This is really interesting. If 44% of voters (arguably among younger voters and not representative of the entire voting public) are already considering to vote AAP in these major Metros, that means AAP has clear winnability in urban segments. When majority of people realize that Congress is not in the picture, that would prompt the existing vote base of Congess to dump that party and rally behind AAP. This would have a major impact in Indian politics.

This has three major consequences:

1) Congress is going to disintegrate into small regional parties in the near future.

2) In short term - Indian political main-stream is going to be divided between BJP led NDA and Non Congress Non BJP opposition. This broad league of Non Congress, Non-BJP opposition include AAP (whith would win third largest number of seats in the 2014 Loksabha election), AIADMK of Jayalalitha (4th position), BSP, Trinamul and left (5th, 6th and 7th positions but may not be in the same order), Samajwadi Party (8th position), JaganrReddy party of Andhra, RJD of Laluyadav, Naveen Patnaik (9th, 10th and 11th position- but may not be in that order), JD-U, NCP, Telegana Party of ChandrasekharRao (12th, 13th and 14th position- with some changes), TDP, AGP, DMK, DMDK, AkaliDal, National Confrence, PDP of Mufti Muhammed Sayed and so on.

3) Long Term effect - When congress disintegrates itself, only a secular political formation can occupy that space. However, Congress also represents urban middle-class interest. Currently Congress and BJP stands for Urban Middle class. Currently Congress and Third Front parties stands for Secular values. AAP stands for urban middle class interests and secular values. Hence it would divide BJP's urban middleclass votes but wont touch BJP's core communal vote base. And AAP would divide Congress' and other parties' secular votes. However, AAP will not become the biggest group representing middle class. Similarly, it cant divide rural secular vote base of third front parties, in a big way. The so called "rural secular vote base" in India is nothing but "voters standing for feudal values" . Voters representing feudal values have two faces. The first one representing zemindari interests and reactionary interests. The other one representing anti-zemindari interests. But this anti-zemindari interests is not always a progressive one. In most cases, they represent another caste group opposed to the land-lord communities. As AAP stands for urban middle class, it is unlikely that, they will make inroads into marginalized sections in rural areas. Many urban middle class in India have relatives in rural areas who are propertied class. The dalits and other landless communities would be sceptical about the intentions and political language of these upper-caste- middle-class "bada aadmi". But some of the old Janata Parivar leaders would jump into this new boat. That means, Janata Parivar would lose many honest leaders to this new outfit. If AAP is negotiating with khap groups and Bharatiya Kisan Sabha etc, then this would start represting the "rich farmers" of Rural India. But one thing needs to be noted here. Even today, Mahendra Singh Tikayat et al failed to get clear dominance even at Panchayat Levels, where as Mayawati is a tall political leader representing masses. I think Yogendra Yadav (the real brain behind AAP -other than Prashant) would soon realize that India of today is not the India of Charan Singh era. The  rural population is divided based on  different castes and ideology. The moment you ally with one of these entities, all others would brand you as enemy.

As explained above Congress, BJP and AAP all compete for urban middle class voters. Out of these both Congress and BJP represents business interests. Right now, AAP represents anti-establishment interests. However, in not so distant future, the class interests of the core base of AAP would force that party to ally with business interests. This is because, idealism is short lived, but class interest are not. Class interests of the followers of AAP go in harmoney with India's corporate interests. Say for example, if there is large scale corporate investments in urban India, the urban property owning urban middle class would directly benefit from that, as the rental value of their buildings and appreciation of land would increase, shop keepers would get more business, their children would have better employment opportunities etc. Idealism wont give them money. Right now, there is huge resentment against Congress rule among Indian urban middle class based in cities. They sincerely believe they are fighting against corruption. But in reality, they are not against corruption. They stand for their own vested interests. In the backdrop of global finance crisis, India is unable to attract large scale business investments. This has nothing to do with Congress rule. Most of the business in recent past in India happened because of the inflow of foreign capital. Foreign fianance capital is only looking for short term gains. When there is a melt-down in the western market, large scale outsourcing to India does not happen. As a result of this, middle class in Indian cities feel the heat. Their anger is reflected in anti-establishment sentiments. Anna Hazare and Arvind Kejriwal built a movement against corruption. This movement against corruption took all those who share resentments against the ruling establishment. In that sense, the middle-class in Indian cities endorse corruption, if the yeild is shared with them.  But right now, the ruling oligarchy is unable to share the loot among larger section of urban society. In this context, the middle class in cities, all of a sudden, became more aware of the big ticket corruption happening in this country. Essentially, the class interest of city based middle class can not maintain harmony with their newly found idealism, in the long term.

At that time, (and if AAP still exists after two or three years), all these parties AAP, Congress and BJP would be representing the middle-cass interests based in cities or the coporate business interests. (Large number of AAP followers would get disillusioned with AAP leadership, in not so distant past and would go back to BJP and Congress. Majority of them would continue to exist as small splinter groups representing the interests of different regional and other business interests.

The new innovations in the production of shale gas in USA would help USA to accelerate the Industrial growth of that country and that would boost business all over the world once again, in not so distant future. That means, city middle class will be less complaining agaisnt the corruption in India, in the coming years, but would be busy gulping whatever small portion they are able to. This would take the game once again back to the square number 1. The real class division in Indian society, would once again come to the fore. The urban rural divide, the working class-corporate divide, the dalit question, exploitation against the women, exploitation in the unorganized sector etc would divide the polity once again.

I would imagine that the break away factions of Congress and some of the regional parties would align themselves with the Left parties in India to represent the rural and urban poor population. The left also is deeply divided and one section of left has already shifted towards right. West Bengal unit of CPI(M) would disintegrate further and a more radical left political group would emerge in the political sphere of India.

BJP would realize that the biggest folly that they committed was to take a far right position, thus alienating large section of civilized urban middle-class. For the first time in the last two decades, BJP is losing its status as the "biggest anti-congress-group" in India. What ever BJP has built in India, they built by this Anti-Congress tirade. When a stronger group emerges to fill this space, BJP will lose most of its liberal followers. India has a little less than 11% far-right-wing, chauvinistic, vote base. They would continue to rally behind BJP. They may still conduct a handful number of communal riots here and there.  Most of their leaders would still make some influence in the society, just like what Sriram Sena chief Muthalik is able to do today. Many erstwhile Janata parivar leaders (who are now with BJP) would abandon saffron party to join, existing centrist parties, AAP or similar avatars that may emerge in the future.Or they would form their own regional outfits.

There would be more chaos in the coming days, with tens of small parties fighting each other, representing regional and identity based interests, but when people are disgruntled with the infighting between coalition partners of ruling governments, they may vote en-mass to one or two bigger parties, on regular intervals. But what lies ahead is the era of coalition politics in India. There would be powerful coalitions fighting each other at national and state levels.

More from Times of India report: "India's biggest metropolises are eagerly looking forward to the Aam Aadmi Party going national and expect it to make a big splash in the 2014 Lok Sabha elections, but a majority still view Narendra Modi as a better prime ministerial prospect than Arvind Kejriwal with Rahul Gandhi a distant third."

This opinion poll was conducted across the country's eight most populous cities — Dhelhi, Mumbai, Kolkata, Chennai, Bangalore, Hyderabad, Pune and Ahmedabad.

TOI says: "Given that 44% of those polled said they would vote for an AAP candidate if there was one in their constituency, and another 27% said they might, depending on the candidate, it is not difficult to see why the respondents rate AAP's electoral prospects so high."

"As for prime ministerial preferences, 58% picked Modi, 25% were for Kejriwal — despite AAP making it clear he is not in the running — and only 14% thought Rahul Gandhi would make the best PM. In Chennai and Mumbai, Kejriwal was preferred over Modi, and even in Modi's home turf, Ahmedabad, 31% thought Kejriwal was the best choice."

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2014 Loksabha Election Surveys Predictions - Can BJP led NDA get Absolute Majority?

NDTV Election Survey Results and Hansa Public Relations links with APCO Worldwide, Narendra Modi's Public Relation Agency.

(This section was added on 8th May, 2014)

Surveys after surveys have been predicting that BJP may emerge as the single largest party after 2014 Loksabha election. And interestingly, all surveys indicate that, BJP may perform unexpectedly well in the states Uttar Pradesh, Bihar and Maharashtra.

Of course, I have noted Seema's article appeared in http://www.thecitizen.in/pollster-hansa-public-relations-predicting-win-for-bjp-linked-with-us-multinational-apco-in-promoting-brand-modi/ . The article is interesting and important too.

However, let us understand the political scenario in India.
Let us understand that, the election surveys HAD NEVER ACCURATELY PREDICTED ELECTION RESULTS TILL THIS DATE. Loksabha Election surveys, in the past had gone seriously wrong in 4 or 5 major states. However, overall, their predictions came closer to the final results only because in two or three states when they have over estimated the performance of a certain party, the same survey under estimated it in couple of other states.
This underlines that, NO ELECTION SURVEY CAN ACCURATELY PREDICT THE ACTUAL NUMBER OF SEATS EACH PARTIES MAY WIN.
But let us be honest in admitting that, election surveys have more accurately predicted the trends.

I have no reason to disbelieve the trend as indicated by these surveys. I dont think, these survey agencies are deliberately misguiding the public. (It is possible, but if Survey predictions are Not completely out of sync with findings of rational and logical analysis, there is no point in trying to find motives behind such surveys. I dont think professionals are impartial in India. Every one has vested interests. That is nothing new.)
One thing is obvious– Where ever the congress is contesting, it is getting routed. Congress is going to be history after this election. Which ever party is perceived to be helping Congress are also getting defeated by voters.
BUT I DO BELIEVE THAT THE SEAT PROJECTIONS ARE GOING TO BE SERIOUSLY FLAWED.

Why do I say so?
NDTV survey shows that NDA may get an absolute majority in the coming Loksabha election. This is mainly because of the gain NDA getting in Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Maharashtra and Andhra Pradesh. In Andhra Pradesh, BJP as a party, is not significantly improving its vote share. What is happening in Seemandhra is, Reddy votes are split between Kiran’ new party, Congress and jagan Reddy’s party. Reddys are the main caste group in Seemandhra. But the backward caste votes are not divided and TDP is gaining. If TDP stay with NDA, that would be an unexpected plus for NDA after the election. In Maharashtra, unlike last time, Rajthakkaray votes are not divided in constituencies where BJP is contesting. That is a tactical move.
There are 40 Loksabha seats in Bihar . Most of the Muslim voters are voting to Lalu-Congress combine just because they do not want Modi to come to power. Many upper caste voters, who otherwise, support Nitish Kumar in the Assembly elections are supporting BJP at national level. In this context, BJP gets larger number of seats followed by LaluPrasad- Congress alliance, which can garner significant number of seats from Bihar.
In Uttar Pradesh, according to the recent survey by NDTV, BJP alone is making huge gains. We need to understand one point here. All other three parties were supporting Manmohan Singh govt at center and that created a political vacuum. We have reasons to believe that, BJP occupied this space and emerges as the main party to the election to Loksabha. (Congress used CBI to play dirty games and it blackmailed SP and BSP to support Manmohan Singh Govt at center.)
Secondly, BJP has organized all other castes other than Yadavs and Muslims.
There are 80 Loksabha seats from Uttar Pradesh. BJP is trying to project well known leaders of each dominant caste groups to attract votes. Except Yadav, Muslim and Dalit communities, BJP has leaders of most major caste groups -- belonging to Lodhs, Kurmis, Brahmins and Thakurs -- in Uttar Pradesh. Due to this reason, sections of these communities may vote for BJP. As BJP successfully organized communal riots in Western Utthar Pradesh where Jats are a dominant community, a section of Jat community also may vote to BJP. But as Ajith Singh's party, Congress and AAP all are targeting Jat votes, BJP may not perform exceptionally well in Western Uttar Pradesh. However, the surveys are indicating that in the Eastern Uttar Pradesh (were Modi is contesting) BJP may do well. --- We will examine this later.
We need to understand one more point. There are large number of Muslims in Uttar Pradesh. But if a Samajwadi Party plays with Muslim sentiments and if BJP leader plays with Hindu sentiments, who will win more number of seats? When both Amit Shah and Azam Khan try to arouse communal sentiments, obviously Hindus rallies behind BJP and Muslims rallies behind SP. This helps BJP only.
In this context, I am not surprised Election surveys are predicting more number of seats to BJP. I dont know if NDTV survey is manipulating. I really doubt if their seats projections are going to be true. But I can say, their findings are not contradicting the sound rational analysis. In short, they are right in predicting the trend.
Kindly ponder over these questions: "What logical explanation you can give for Congress winning 20 seats from Uttar Pradesh in the last Loksabha Election? What explanation you can give for SP getting absolute majority in the Uttar Pradesh Vidhan Soudha election and BSP in the previous election?" . The same logic will tell you that BJP, at least in theory, can win highest number of seats from Uttar Pradesh, this time.
Obviously, people of North India, Central India, and Western India are voting to a party, NOT BECAUSE THEY LIKE THAT PARTY, BUT BECAUSE THEY WANT TO VOTE TO A WINNING GROUP. THEY DONT WANT POLITICAL UNCERTAINTY. (or people of these states are brainwashed to believe that there is something seriously wrong if there is going to be hung parliament.)
But, in the same breathe, let me say, the seat projections are going to be wrong at the end. Why?
One problem is, the vote share is slowly coming down for BJP in Uttar pradesh compared to the last survey by NDTV. Also the vote share of BSP is slowly rising. Arguably, there is some kind of understanding between SP and Cong. If this trend continues, BSP and SP may win many of BJP votes when the polls are held. It is also said, the Brahmins are slightly upset with BJP. hmmmm.... Let us see, how far it is true....

In Uttar Pradesh and Bihar, if BJP fails to get as many number of seats as projected by these surveys, then we are going to see a hung parliament, with BJP alliance, just a few tens of seats short of 272 mark. (But, if the NDTV survey is correct, BJP is going to form a coalition govt after 2014 Loksabha elections.) It is likely that, TDP and DMDK may not even support BJP after elections. BJP may be hoping for TRS and Jagan support. If TRS requires the support of Congress or Razakar party from Hyderabad, it will not show much interest to support BJP at national level. Jagan Reddy may not like to lose the minority votes in Andhra. However, one or two parties (including NCP) may abstain during the voting and BJP can still hope to form a govt at center. But equally possible is, a govt led by Jayalalitha and supported from outside either by NDA allies or UPA + Third Front + Trinamul Congress. If Jayalalitha supports BJP, DMK and DMDK may vote against them. Trinamul cant support BJP because Assembly elections are due after one year. But Trinamul can support Jayalalitha, which is also supported by NDA.

I have a feeling that BJP may get slightly lower number of seats in Uttar pradesh and Bihar, than what is predicted. In these states Anti Modi votes may get consolidated behind other opponents. (the Surveys can only predict the current mood. It can not accurately predict the results if there is transferring of votes to defeat leading candidates in individual constituencies. This will sure happen. Prannoy Roy says no one among the voters knows who is at second and at third position. This is not true. People dont look at who is first, second and third. People from a particular caste, group, religion or region look who is his/her main opponent. If that candidate is perceived to be leading, then he/she would vote the prominent candidate from his caste/religion/group or to the candidate who is perceived to be more sympathetic to his caste/religion. That is happening all the time. Hence, last minute transferring of votes would sure happen in states like Uttar Pradesh. Remember, in these states, there is no organization for BJP. It is just the caste sentiment. The current advantageous position BJP enjoys in India is also because of this “transferring of votes to the main opponent”. In most areas there is an anti-Congress mood. People dont vote in favour of a party. But they vote against a party. When people look other parties, they know there are good parties at local level. But they dont want to vote to a regional party which may not be able to influence govt at center. In short, people want to sense that his/her vote is actually making some influence somewhere. BJP emerged as the main opposition of Congress only because of this tactical transferring of votes to the main opponent party at National level. But that very process has created other frictions at regional level. Now there are small groups– caste groups and religious groups— who NOW WANTS TO DEFEAT the already emerged leader party. The second level of re-alignment takes place as a response to the first level of re-alignment.

This last moment re-alignment wont happen till the last few days. this can not be judged by election surveys. Let us wait and see.

Why I say, BJP is not the natural choice of majority of the voters of India. Simple- Within one year elections are to be conducted in Bihar, Delhi and West Bengal. We will see who is going to be elected there and who will emerge in the second place. That will confirm that BJP is not the natural choice of people. But in order to defeat Congress, people are voting en-mass to BJP. But that is creating further friction and further re-alignment would happen in some states, especially where there are multi-cornered contests, and where the leading political party is not the naturally preferred choice of the people in general. In Maharashra, BJP alliance is the natural choice of majority of people who want to defeat Congress+NCP. But it is not so in Uttar Pradesh and Bihar.

But, unfortunately, that can make some changes in election results only in Uttar Pradesh and to some extent in Bihar. In those states where there is direct fight between Cong and BJP, congress has already run away. In Orissa and Andhra the entire Congress state units ran away from the battlefield.

If India needs to defeat evil Fascist politics, they have to first destroy Congress. As long as Congress remains in Indian politics, it wont allow other progressive forces to emerge in regions.

Interestingly, the entire South, and Eastern India is voting against BJP. In fact, its vote share is declining in many areas.

Another sad truth is, in states like Bihar, voters clearly think Nitish Kumar is the best Chief Minister and they all want to vote Janata Dal (U) in Assembly election. But in Loksabha, they want BJP.

This is true in many other states. The vote share for the BJP at Loksabha election is much higher compared to its vote share in Assembly election surveys.

It appears, voters of India do not like “Kichdi”(strange mix) govts at center. This is a dangerous line of thinking. Progressive political parties and social activists should seriously try to correct this perception. Unfortunately, all Third group coalition govts that came to power at center were minority govts supported by either Congress and BJP. When these parties withdrew support, the govts fell down and people think third groups can not provide a stable govt at center.

The fact remains that, the BJP and Congress vote share and political presence is fast declining in India. This will be obvious in the Assembly election which are going to be conducted immediately after loksabha election. Sooner or later people may have to elect “kichdi” (strange mix) govts at center. Such experiments will have its own problems.

But some of the important policies were implemented by Governments which didnt have absolute majority. You may not approve all these policies and rules. VP Singh govt implemented Mandal Commission report. Devegowda govt allowed 100% FDI in IT /Software exports. Narasimharao govt, which was a minority govt started economic liberalization. Right to Information, Mahatma Gandhi Rural Employment guarantee Scheme etc were implemented by a govt which was depended on outside support.

In all previous election surveys, they were wrong in 3- 4 states. If Surveys go wrong only about Uttar Pradesh and Bihar, this time, then BJP's men in black will spend more time in the court rooms than in Parliament.
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First published on 31st May 2011. Edited on 2nd June. Notes about Yogendra Yadav Survey is appended on 12th August 2011. Section titled "Can Rahul Revive Congress" was added on 9th March, 2012. Section Titled "Can Jayalalitha Become the Prime Minister of India?" was added on 31st Oct, 2013. The
Pararaph Titled "Will Aam Aadmi Party Divide BJP Votes in 2014 Loksabha Election??" was added on 9th December, 2013